State of the MacroQuarterly · draft
Index July August September Q3 lock Q4 draft October Glossary
Working quarterly for October–December. Started 22 October, after the Q3 lock. No A–G yet.
Draft — not a lock — not a buy listQ3 is locked. This draft starts empty of A–G. The first fold happens after the October monthly, and it will cite that month’s P-* grades. It will not copy-edit September or the Q3 essay.
These IDs were written on the September lock. October grades them. This draft does not.
| ID | Watch |
|---|---|
| P-2026-10-01 | September CPI observation — headline 3.72%, median 2.81, not yet graded |
| P-2026-10-02 | BTC↔gold corr ≥0.6 for ~20 days, or a stable lag. At 30 Sep: 0.554, lag 0 |
| P-2026-10-03 | BTC vs $55–75k. At 30 Sep: $83,624. No auto-upgrade |
| P-2026-10-04 | Real 10y still above 0. At 30 Sep: 2.93% |
| P-2026-10-05 | M2 YoY vs 7%. Latest on disk: August 5.66% |
| P-2026-10-06 | Fiscal interest ÷ outlays, or stay withdrawn |
| P-2026-10-07 | A falsifier for “run it hot”, or it stays open |
| P-2026-10-08 | China housing + liquidity pack, or stay [Gap] |
Q3 essay, frozen: /2026-Q3. September monthly: /2026-09. October forward plan: /2026-10. Index.