State of the MacroMonthly · not poured
Index July August BTC bear September Q3 draft Glossary
Month ahead. Same IDs as the August plan — what we will grade, and why they are on the board. No September tape yet.
Not a lock — not tape — not a buy listThree watches can actually move in September. They are on the board because August did not settle them.
| ID | Watch | Why | How we score it |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-2026-09-01 | September CPI print | July was mixed: headline 3.46%→3.30%, median 2.11→3.11. Disinflation watch not confirmed. | Does median/headline restore a cooling watch, or stay mixed? |
| P-2026-09-02 | BTC↔gold corr / lag | July closed 0.630 (above 0.6). August 0.540 (back below). Did not hold 20 days. Lag still 0. | Pass if corr ≥0.6 for ~20 days and/or a stable lag ≠ 0. Today: neither. |
| P-2026-09-03 | BTC vs $55–75k band | July $62,888 inside. August $78,539 above. Likelihood word was not upgraded. | Record where it sits. Do not auto-upgrade B2. |
Held in August. September only acts if they fail.
| ID | Watch | Why it stays |
|---|---|---|
| P-2026-09-04 | Real 10y stays >0 | 2.47% → 2.32%. Still +ve, off peak. A week below 0 would matter. |
| P-2026-09-05 | M2 YoY vs 7% | 5.41%. Not breached. The 7% band is still the line. |
| P-2026-09-06 | WL-09 outlays ratio | Withdrawn until a FRED pair locks. No numerals. |
These stay open until someone names a falsifier or a pack lands. They are not September’s work unless that happens.
| ID | Watch | What unblocks |
|---|---|---|
| P-2026-09-07 | “Run it hot” (MQ-07) | Matt names a falsifier, or it stays open. |
| P-2026-09-08 | China housing + liquidity | Pack lands, or stay [Gap]. |
Your 11 — the numbered list you sent. WL — our watchlist codes. P-* — the named watch we grade next month. MQ — open questions. Full lookup: Glossary.
When this monthly is poured it grades these IDs, writes an October plan, and folds the retro into the Q3 draft. Until then this page is the forward plan, not a freeze. Index.