State of the MacroMonthly · not poured
Index July August September Q3 lock Q4 draft October Glossary
Month ahead. The September lock already named these watches. No October tape on this page.
Not a lock — not tape — not a buy listSame IDs as the September plan. This page is not the October tape. The month is not closed, and a plan is not graded on the day it is written.
| ID | Watch | Where it stood on 30 Sep |
|---|---|---|
| P-2026-10-01 | September CPI observation | Headline YoY 3.72%. Median 2.81. Not graded. |
| P-2026-10-02 | BTC↔gold corr / lag | 0.554. Lag 0. Streak at 0.6 was 4 days. |
| P-2026-10-03 | BTC vs $55–75k | $83,624. Above the band. Do not auto-upgrade. |
| P-2026-10-04 | Real 10y stays >0 | 2.93%. Still positive. |
| P-2026-10-05 | M2 YoY vs 7% | August 5.66%. September M2 not on disk. |
| P-2026-10-06 | WL-09 outlays ratio | Withdrawn. No numerals. |
| P-2026-10-07 | “Run it hot” | No falsifier. Stays open. |
| P-2026-10-08 | China housing + liquidity | No pack. Stays [Gap]. |
Poured when October closes: grade these IDs, write a November plan, fold the retro into the Q4 draft. September lock · Index.